Friday, May 27, 2011


Most news networks here were asking PAG-ASA why their forecast is different from the other weather forecasting services from other countries. Of course PAG-ASA defended its forecast by saying that they have a different model that they use from that of the other countries’ metrological services. I was asking myself, how can this be when other country’s metrological services have superior forecasting equipment and simulators that what they have…hmmmm…I have suspicion that PAG-ASA is playing it too safe.

True, Pag-asa uses other model, old model that's wahy their predictions are way, way off the mark.

PAG-ASA kept reiterating that it they would be happiest if their forecast were wrong. Now what is wrong with this? I think our meteorological agency is still reeling from the firing of its former director because of missed forecasts that costs the country lost lives and damage properties amounting to billions of pesos. Former director Dr. Nilo Frisco blamed the lack and the obsolete equipment as the main reason why their forecast missed. Malacanang was not happy with the excuse and instead of upgrading the agency's equipments they opted for the cheaper option: fire the director.

He was not even given another chance.

Maybe they are afraid that head would roll again if they missed with their forecast or maybe as a response to the government’s zero casualty program, PAG-ASA are being too careful with their forecast betting on being wrong on the side of caution rather than erring on the other side.

The trouble with this is the PAG-ASA may become the proverbial boy who cried wolf.

Anyway, it’s a blessing that Chedeng missed the country and I just hope that it would hmmmm...NOT (I'm sorry I forgot the word not!)harm Japan.

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